Social Security recipients will know this week how much their benefits will increase in 2027.

The Social Security Administration is set to announce next year’s cost of living adjustment (COLA) on Oct. 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The announcement will come after the last set of inflation data – September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) - is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

COLA is determined by comparing the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August and September of the current year to the same period the prior year. Years with higher inflation generally lead to higher COLA, as prices for things such as gas, healthcare and food continue to rise.

This appears to be the case heading into 2027.

The latest forecast from the advocacy group The Senior Citizen League puts 2027’s COLA at 3.5%, the highest level in four years, a figure that could change based on September’s inflation numbers. If it holds, the 3.5% COLA would be the highest since 2023 and well above the 2.8% adjustment for 2026 and 2.5% in 2025.

A 3.5% increase would raise the average monthly benefit by $67.90, from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98.

The change will impact some 70 million people who receive traditional Social Security benefits, as well as disability and survivor beneficiaries.

Medicare will cut into COLA increase

While the Social Security COLA is on track to to be the largest since 2023, a portion of the increase will be lost to rising Medicare costs.

The latest Medicare Trustees Report projects the standard Part B premium at $209.50 for 2027, a $6.60 monthly increase from the current $202.90. Part B premiums are deducted directly from Social Security checks, reducing the amount of monthly benefits.

The annual Part B deductible is projected to increase from $283 to about $292.

Costs related to Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage are also expected to increase. Standard deductions are projected to rise to $700, up from $615, with out-of-pocket limits increasing from $2,100 to $2,400.