Hyundai signage at the New York International Auto Show on April 2, 2026. Danielle DeVries | CNBC

DETROIT — Hyundai Motor is expected to outsell Ford Motor in quarterly sales for the first time ever, according to a new forecast released Thursday by Cox Automotive. The South Korean automaker is expected to report a 6.5% increase in year-over-year sales from July through September to 511,421 units. That compares with an expected 7.1% decline for Ford over the third quarter to 504,172 new vehicles sold, according to Cox predictions. The expected leaderboard change would make Hyundai the third best-selling automaker in the U.S. behind General Motors and Toyota Motor. That change comes as new vehicle sales have been stronger than expected this year. Cox on Thursday raised its 2026 forecast by roughly 2%, to 16.1 million units. "The automotive market this year has been pretty resilient," Jeremy Robb, Cox chief economist, said Thursday during a media call. "New and used sales are both down year over year, but they're not down really that much."

Hyundai's hot streak

Hyundai, including its luxury Genesis brand and corporate sibling Kia, has been making major inroads in the U.S. this year. Ford, meanwhile, has struggled with production of its crucial F-Series pickup trucks following two supplier fires last year that disrupted production and sales. Hyundai CEO José Muñoz told CNBC last month that topping Ford in U.S. sales isn't a goal but if it happens, it's because of the company's continued focus on products and execution.

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"We focus on delivering, the best, safe products to the customer with the highest possible quality," Muñoz said, noting the company is No. 3 in sales globally. "And we end up achieving unbelievable goals." Aside from pickup production troubles, Cox analysts said sales for Ford and its crosstown rival GM are being hindered by a lack of hybrid vehicles — a rapidly growing market in the U.S. amid inflated gas prices. "If you don't have vehicles to catch [consumers] where they are, then there are other manufacturers that likely would step into the gap," Erin Keating, a Cox executive analyst, said Thursday during a media call. GM only offers a hybrid version of its Corvette, while Ford's hybrids include its Maverick and F-150 pickup trucks.

Toyota gains on GM

Hybrid leader Toyota Motor also has been narrowing its sales gap with No. 1 sales leader GM. Cox said last quarter that GM could be overtaken by the Japanese automaker this year in annual sales. GM is expected to report a year-over-year sales decline of 5.2% to 671,706 new vehicles sold during the third quarter, while Toyota is predicted to report a 2.2% gain to 642,707 units. For the year, Toyota is trailing GM by fewer than 121,100 units. If Toyota can top GM, it would mark the second time Toyota has ever outsold GM in annual U.S. sales. The first time was in 2021 when supply chain disruptions affected vehicle production.