Everyday investors could pour a record $250 million into Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) shares on its first day of trading, according to Vanda Research.

The estimate, which would be more than double the $118 million in net retail buying the first day of SpaceX's (SPCX) June listing, hinges on a surge in derivatives trading tied to Anthropic's yet-to-be-listed shares on crypto exchange Hyperliquid.

Trading volume in this Anthropic-linked instrument reached a record $270 million on Tuesday, nearly triple last week's daily volumes, according to analysis from Vanda strategist Viraj Patel.

Vanda found that retail stock trading activity on the opening days of recent IPOs, including SpaceX, was roughly five times the peak daily trading volume in their pre-IPO derivatives. Based on Anthropic's Tuesday perpetual futures trading activity, the assessment would suggest $250 million in net buying on the company's planned listing day next week.

The projection comes with considerable caveats. The perpetual futures tied to Anthropic represent a speculative gauge of investor enthusiasm, and patterns from previous IPOs may not repeat.

Anthropic is targeting a valuation of $1.4 trillion, below the $2 trillion market value previously discussed, as the AI industry has faced headwinds from rising borrowing costs, hedge fund deleveraging, and political backlash over data center construction.

Anthropic is also planning a retail investor allocation of up to 20%, to be distributed through online brokerages, including US-based Charles Schwab (SCHW), Fidelity, Morgan Stanley's E-Trade, Robinhood (HOOD), and SoFi (SOFI).

Read more: Everything you need to know ahead of Anthropic's IPO

Follow David Hollerith on X @DsHollers.